I’m back after a holiday hiatus.  It’s always wonderful to visit with family and friends, but sometimes I find myself wondering (like authors Oliver Burkeman and Bill Perkins) how many more holiday seasons I’ll be gifted?  Not in a morbid sense, but in a realistic “make the most of these times” sense.  Twenty holidays?  Fifteen?  No one knows of course. 

This got me thinking about the long-held standard retirement “math.” Work until age 65, save a nest egg, and hope it lasts 10 to 15 years. It was relatively simple. But with medical breakthroughs and increasing health consciousness, this math becomes more complex. We aren’t just living longer; we are living differently. These shifts have helped enable this notion of phased retirement—a downshift to consulting, part-time roles, or passion projects. But how do you know when it’s safe to begin the downshift? Part of the answer lies in using data to solve for your most important variable: time. 

Most of us guesstimate our lifespan based on family history or a vague sense of our own health. However, there are tools to help aid our financial confidence and provide more than a hunch. The online calculator, the Society of Actuaries Longevity Illustrator, estimates the chances that you will live for various lengths of time. If you’re 65 now, what’s the probability that you’ll live to 80?  Or 90?  And for couples, it also shows the likelihood that one of you will outlive the other. As a bonus, this calculator stands out because it doesn’t include any sales pitches for products or services aimed at people preparing for retirement.

When I ran my own numbers, the results were a bit of a wake-up call. To be conservative (financially), I started with an assumption that I’ll live to 90. The Society of Actuaries calculator gives me greater than 25% odds of living until then. That’s longer than I had previously expected…good news! But it also suggests saving more and possibly working longer – albeit in a less-than-fulltime role. It also means I should consider delaying Social Security to receive a higher monthly benefit check, potentially for decades to come. 

While these statistics are interesting inputs, it is important to make a distinction: these tools tell you about quantity of life, not quality of life. There is a distinct “health span” we must consider, and we should aim to do our most active “bucket list” items while we are younger and healthier. This is the ultimate argument for the phased approach. By using a longevity illustrator, you can find the “sweet spot”: working enough to secure your 90s, while freeing up enough time in your 60s and 70s to enjoy life. Longevity is no longer a mystery, it’s another interesting data point to be managed. By using objective tools, you can stop guessing and start planning for a life that is as long as it is rewarding. 

To take some action and use the data for your own situation, consider the following questions:  

• Have you run your own numbers? Head over to the Society of Actuaries Illustrator and see if your ’90-year-plan’ matches your current savings and retirement strategy.  https://www.longevityillustrator.org 

• Phased retirement is about balancing time for your ‘Go-Go’ years with long-term financial security. What is one ‘active’ bucket list item you could move up on your calendar this year? 

• If you discovered you had a 25% chance of living to nearly 100, would you change/extend your retirement date or make other changes?